Ethiopia, Africa’s fastest-growing economy, is looking to its capital to help sustain an expansion that averaged more than 10 percent a year in the past decade.
Planners predict the population of Addis Ababa and five satellite towns will more than double by 2040 to 8.1 million, highlighting United Nations estimates that Africa’s global share of urban dwellers will double to 20 percent in the next 35 years. Planners envisage developing an area 20 times the current boundaries of the city. Ambitions for mass transport match the standard of central Paris, ensuring every resident lives within 500 meters (0.3 miles) of a bus or train ride to the center.
One of its new residents would be Bekele Feyissa, a 45-year-old father of six who farms cereals on a plot in Sebeta. The town is about 20 kilometers south of the center and is set to be swallowed by the city.
“If the city grows, it will be good for us as we will get electricity,” Bekele said, standing in the shade of a hedge as a donkey pulled a cart along an unpaved road beside him.
The government’s plan for Addis Ababa is critical to its aspirations for developing into a middle-income country in about a decade, mirroring efforts by Kenya and Zambia. The continent’s economic potential will be highlighted as U.S. President Barack Obama hosts more than 40 African leaders at a summit in Washington next week.
International Monetary Fund data show Ethiopia is on the way to achieving its goal, with average annual growth of 10.9 percent during the past decade powered by spending on electricity plants, railways, roads, health and education.
Investment Boom
That investment is funded by increasing tax revenue and more than $3 billion a year in Western aid, along with cheap loans from China and India, domestic state banks and institutions including the World Bank. Public investment accounted for 63 percent of growth in the fiscal year that ended July 7, 2012, the World Bank said in July 2013.
Ethiopia, where civilization can be traced to the Axum Empire that began two millennia ago, is Africa’s oldest independent country and the only one on the continent to avoid European colonization although Italy occupied the country from 1936 to 1941. Fossils of human ancestors dating back about five million years have been found there. Emperor Menelik II, who also led military conquests of Oromo territory, founded modern Addis Ababa in 1887. The city, set among eucalyptus-covered hills, is the world’s third-highest capital.
Global Standing
Addis Ababa is the third-likeliest city in the developing world to improve its global standing over the next two decades, according to an index published in April by A.T. Kearney Inc., a Chicago-based consulting company. The gauge is based on 26 metrics of how well municipalities generate, attract and retain talent. Jakarta and Manila topped the rankings.
The blueprint for the expansion — entitled “Addis Ababa and the Surrounding Oromia Integrated Development Plan” — provides for “a megacity of between 8 to 10 million in the coming 25 years,” Mathewos Asfaw, general manager of the master-plan project office, said in an interview at the Desalegn Hotel in the Bole neighborhood, which is dotted with embassies, mansions and malls.
The plan explains how the city’s land will be used and sketches out the hospitals, schools, public transport and other services required. It also describes the steps needed to provide water, collect waste and reduce pollution by grouping harmful industries.
‘Double-Digit Growth’
While fewer than 20 percent of Ethiopia’s more than 90 million people live in urban areas, towns and cities account for about 80 percent of the economic expansion, according to the World Bank. “Addis Ababa’s role in sustaining Ethiopia’s double-digit growth should not be underestimated,” it said in a 2010 study. Half the population will live in cities and towns by 2040.
Addis Ababa’s skyline already is transforming. Tower cranes are a common sight, with low-cost apartments, malls and office blocks shooting up. To make way, old residences and slums are torn down, leaving their inhabitants struggling.
Tracks for a light-rail network China Communications Construction Co. is building soar above the main roads. Turkish textile companies, Chinese glass factories and international chains such as the Radisson Hotels International Inc. and Marriot International Inc. are also opening.
[BusinessWeek]