Following the global fall in the price of oil, the percentage yield of Ethiopia, a return that investors will receive on holding a bond to maturity, increased from 6.625pc to 7.82pc.
According to Bloomberg data, reported on December 12, 2014, among sub-Saharan dollar bond issuers, only debt from South Africa and Namibia are rated as above ‘junk’. Ghana was reduced one level in October, to B-, six steps below the investment grade. Nigeria is three levels higher, at BB-, while Rwanda stands at B and Kenya at B+.
Ethiopia, which sold debut Eurobonds at a 6.6 pc yield, and which now trades at 7.82 pc, is rated B, while Ivory Coast is rated B1, one level below Nigeria, according to Bloomberg.
It was three weeks ago that the government of Ethiopia joined the international capital market by getting a one billion dollar oversubscribed debut Eurobond from Europe and the United States (US), with 6.625pc interest rate. The government is planning to utilize the money for the establishment of two new sugar factories, the installation of an electric power system and the development of two industrial zones.
“This bond has a probability of being a junk bond for the economy if the oil price goes down at this pace,’’ said a macroeconomist.
Junk bonds are bonds that are known by their higher default risk and rated below investment grade.
The bond, on the market for three weeks in Europe and America, got a subscription of 2.6 billion dollars, but the government only sold a one billion-dollar bond as of December 5, 2014: half the amount that has been approved by parliament.
“We considered our paying capacity and decided to only sell a one billion dollar bond,’’ said Sufian Ahmed, minister of Finance and Economic Development, during the press briefing he gave at his office in Sidest Kilo, located on the King George VI Street, on Tuesday, December 16, 2014.
All subscribers are institutions, such as insurance firms, and 70pc of them are from the US, with the remaining being from Europe, said Sufian. He added that Ethiopia has got a good deal, because it does not have to pay commitment fees and insurance fees, despite these two fees being the norm in the securities market. In addition, it has a lesser interest rate, compared to other conventional loans, especially project loans, he said.
Even before joining the capital market, Ethiopia took project loans that pledge for a single project after assessment, and the government receives sector loans from international financial institutions, including the World Bank (WB), African Development Bank (AfDB), and EXIM banks.
In the market, the minister mentioned the upcoming election, a probability of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, drought and logistics problems due to the country being land-locked. The aforementioned were listed as the risks in the market, but we were rated lower by the international buyers, said Sufian.
Ethiopia has a very safe debt rating, says Sufian, mentioning the five standards to level one country’s debt rate. Net Present Value (NPV) for Ethiopia, which draws a comparison between the cash outflows and inflows, 12.6pc, according to Sufian, who says that it is safe for a country to score up to 40pc, but not more.
Ethiopia’s NPV ratio to the export also stands at 100pc, he added, while it is safe to go as far as 150pc. The ratio of NPV for domestic revenue is 108pc, where the bottom line is over 250pc. Debt service ratio per export also stands at 6.8pc, far below the standard of 20pc. Ethiopia’s status in the last measurement, in terms of debt service ratio to domestic ratio, is 7.3pc, where the alarm is over 20pc.
“We do not have a plan to go back to the capital market for the coming two Growth the Transformation Plan (GTP) periods, said Sufian. “But if things force us to go back to the international market, we will definitely do so.”
The two sugar factories are located in the Southern region and the Eastern part, according to Sufian, who declined to further disclose the exact locations of the factories. The two industrial zones are designated to be constructed at Dire Dawa, 515Km east of the capital and Hawassa, 273km south of the capital in the Southern Region. The industrial zones are part of the government plan to establish industrial zones in four towns, including in Kombolcha, 376km to the north of the capital in the Amhara region and in Shillabo, 1,140km from the capital in Somalia Region, on a total of 5,130ha of land.
The minister mentioned that electric power transmission systems will be funded from this loan, the transmission line will be extended from Ethiopia to Kenya, and Kenya’s part is funded by the WB, according to sources.
The use of this loan for the projects will help the country earn foreign currency by exporting, but these are the areas where the GTP failed, so they all need special handling and follow-up, including determining what part of the government is the contract administrator and project manager, cash flow for the projects, and detailed feasibility studies, said a macroeconomist.
The government should give special emphasis, as the carry-on cost increases until the projects are finalized and start earning foreign currency, suggests this expert.
[AddisFortune]